Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | AAMU +160 TNST -192 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +27 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -4.8 (+31.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -5.3 (+32.3) | 142.0 (-9.0) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -0.8 (+27.8) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -1.8 (+28.8) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -0.8 (+27.8) | 144.7 (-11.7) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2024 | TNST 81 – 71 AAMU |
| Nov 30, 2023 | AAMU 85 – 83 TNST |
| Nov 15, 2022 | TNST 87 – 76 AAMU |
| Nov 10, 2021 | AAMU 82 – 73 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#299) | 1.3 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#156) | 1.17 (#97) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#161) | 1.26 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.537 (#114) | 0.583 (#66) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.8% | 38.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 30.0 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.9% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 38.0% |
Game Analysis
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