Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | TNST -450 AAMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +11 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -20.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -17.2 (-6.2) | 145.4 (+17.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -22.3 (-11.3) | 145.2 (+17.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | AAMU 80 – 53 TNST |
| Nov 17, 2024 | TNST 81 – 71 AAMU |
| Nov 30, 2023 | AAMU 85 – 83 TNST |
| Nov 10, 2021 | AAMU 82 – 73 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#94) | -6.2 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#137) | -1.84 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#132) | -2.60 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#131) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNST | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 40.9% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 41.0 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 21.2% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 39.8% | 58.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 54.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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