Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -150 TENN +126 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +8 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -5.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+48.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -4.4 (+3.6) | 149.2 (+42.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -5.0 (+3.0) | 140.9 (+51.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -4.9 (+3.1) | 141.1 (+50.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -4.8 (+3.2) | 148.1 (+43.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 21, 2021 | TENN 89 – 72 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-1 | 14-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#24) | 13.9 (#20) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#100) | 2.55 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#85) | 4.34 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#110) | 0.629 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | TENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.5 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 42.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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