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Efficiency Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
66–31 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
97 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+3.6 | 136.2 | 66% | 75–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.8 | 149.6 | 57% | 86–91 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 138.7 | 36% | 53–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.7 | 142.8 | 27% | 68–75 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.1 | 142.5 | 22% | 71–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.3 | 137.6 | 51% | 85–72 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.8 | 145.5 | 40% | 88–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-4.4 | 140.6 | 32% | 75–74 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 143.3 | 73% | 60–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.0 | 132.5 | 74% | 69–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.1 | 136.4 | 80% | 62–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 122.0 | 73% | 54–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+10.5 | 123.5 | 85% | 57–68 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 143.1 | 48% | 62–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 141.9 | 52% | 58–61 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.5 | 137.4 | 25% | 81–75 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.3 | 141.0 | 44% | 68–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.0 | 140.0 | 27% | 79–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 141.4 | 65% | 69–66 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.3 | 139.4 | 82% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.4 | 140.7 | 44% | 77–59 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.9 | 155.0 | 64% | 80–70 | ✗ |
|
|
-4.5 | 142.0 | 30% | 89–78 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.6 | 139.9 | 17% | 76–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.5 | 137.6 | 72% | 77–81 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.1 | 129.8 | 79% | 66–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 141.9 | 34% | 72–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.6 | 130.7 | 47% | 84–81 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.8 | 139.8 | 74% | 78–71 | ✗ |
|
|
-2.0 | 128.7 | 52% | 62–64 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 142.2 | 34% | 87–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.7 | 145.6 | 48% | 82–91 | ✗ |
|
|
+13.4 | 151.9 | 87% | 78–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 137.0 | 74% | 60–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.2 | 135.6 | 80% | 70–55 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.5 | 136.1 | 59% | 69–67 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.4 | 146.7 | 31% | 75–47 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.7 | 151.5 | 90% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.9 | 140.6 | 64% | 64–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.2 | 143.9 | 37% | 80–56 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.2 | 159.7 | 56% | 74–75 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.6 | 66% | 61–67 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.5 | 149.5 | 44% | 93–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 145.9 | 68% | 67–75 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.0 | 140.3 | 65% | 57–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.9 | 133.8 | 40% | 71–76 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 137.4 | 49% | 80–62 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 146.9 | 38% | 70–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+16.1 | 148.0 | 90% | 51–64 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.1 | 133.8 | 62% | 75–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.6 | 144.4 | 79% | 57–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+14.4 | 143.5 | 89% | 52–74 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.2 | 146.7 | 34% | 90–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.5 | 136.6 | 82% | 79–76 | ✗ |
|
|
+2.6 | 149.5 | 60% | 84–82 | ✗ |
|
|
+9.8 | 147.8 | 84% | 65–69 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 139.1 | 35% | 88–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.8 | 131.4 | 16% | 71–40 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.3 | 149.1 | 43% | 94–63 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.5 | 151.2 | 78% | 63–70 | ✓ |
|
|
-3.8 | 143.6 | 38% | 79–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.9 | 137.8 | 77% | 76–63 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.2 | 135.9 | 64% | 59–43 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.1 | 136.7 | 58% | 76–85 | ✗ |
|
|
+5.3 | 143.6 | 77% | 58–60 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 154.5 | 51% | 76–88 | ✓ |
|
|
+4.8 | 157.1 | 71% | 80–104 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 138.9 | 80% | 53–65 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 135.4 | 53% | 56–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+7.8 | 133.0 | 76% | 65–58 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.9 | 145.7 | 17% | 80–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.4 | 136.6 | 79% | 72–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.4 | 154.8 | 66% | 84–86 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.7 | 136.5 | 68% | 86–82 | ✗ |
|
|
-5.2 | 134.4 | 24% | 53–66 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.2 | 145.9 | 29% | 77–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.8 | 146.1 | 67% | 70–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+2.7 | 156.4 | 63% | 87–89 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.1 | 150.1 | 84% | 61–80 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.6 | 142.6 | 29% | 67–55 | ✓ |
|
|
-6.5 | 139.1 | 25% | 77–76 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.4 | 150.2 | 90% | 66–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.9 | 142.2 | 79% | 76–69 | ✗ |
|
|
-10.5 | 128.1 | 18% | 79–69 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.4 | 137.6 | 48% | 68–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+7.3 | 131.9 | 77% | 62–54 | ✗ |
|
|
+4.6 | 138.0 | 72% | 55–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.7 | 139.9 | 51% | 75–81 | ✗ |
|
|
-6.8 | 136.0 | 30% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
-10.8 | 141.7 | 17% | 66–56 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.7 | 138.5 | 70% | 81–72 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.6 | 134.4 | 66% | 54–99 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.2 | 128.7 | 66% | 66–56 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.6 | 154.0 | 37% | 72–94 | ✗ |
|
|
+10.2 | 151.8 | 85% | 68–79 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.5 | 144.5 | 44% | 82–86 | ✗ |
|
|
-7.3 | 134.8 | 22% | 69–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.