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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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55–35 on winners spread MAE 9.5 95 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Kent State @ Akron	+3.5	154.9	65%	62–66	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	-10.8	148.7	18%	90–51	✓
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis	+1.5	140.3	62%	65–62	✗
Texas State @ Louisiana	+3.2	134.1	67%	77–83	✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	+2.8	130.4	60%	72–84	✓
Old Dominion @ Florida International	+3.9	157.6	67%	67–82	✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State	-9.7	142.5	23%	89–90	✗
Marshall @ Louisiana Tech	-0.3	147.2	46%	68–75	✗
UTEP @ Southern Miss	-7.3	127.2	22%	66–74	✗
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Santa Barbara	—	—	—	63–81	—
Texas @ Kansas	+4.2	139.9	74%	84–59	✗
Creighton @ Providence	-0.6	152.8	46%	67–65	✓
Missouri @ Arkansas	+9.3	145.4	80%	81–68	✗
Louisville @ Boston College	-2.9	142.5	39%	76–64	✓
Elon @ Northeastern	+4.2	131.5	66%	52–75	✓
Duquesne @ George Washington	-1.2	147.5	44%	75–63	✓
Baylor @ Iowa State	-13.7	147.1	17%	76–65	✓
Saint Peter's @ Canisius	-0.6	134.0	48%	60–63	✗
Florida A&M @ South Carolina	+9.8	141.4	84%	71–78	✓
Chattanooga @ VMI	-1.1	140.6	46%	79–84	✗
Iowa @ Rutgers	+2.7	163.5	59%	77–75	✗
North Carolina A&T @ South Carolina State	-4.8	144.8	34%	97–86	✓
East Carolina @ Tulane	-1.0	132.7	45%	56–60	✗
Niagara @ Marist	+3.0	128.2	69%	86–72	✗
Clemson @ Miami	-5.9	128.9	24%	66–65	✓
Lafayette @ Lehigh	—	—	—	89–90	—
Bucknell @ Navy	—	—	—	69–78	—
LSU @ Florida	+2.4	153.9	63%	79–83	✓
Binghamton @ Hartford	+5.2	131.0	69%	56–76	✓
TCU @ Kansas State	-1.9	139.6	43%	67–60	✓
Mercer @ Furman	+10.2	154.1	85%	80–83	✓
Toledo @ Western Michigan	-9.9	137.4	20%	70–59	✓
William & Mary @ Hofstra	+10.2	143.9	86%	56–61	✓
Charleston @ Delaware	+2.6	133.4	63%	67–70	✓
Northern Arizona @ Idaho	+0.3	135.4	50%	83–78	✗
Tulsa @ Cincinnati	+0.4	132.8	53%	70–66	✗
Army @ Colgate	—	—	—	57–101	—
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	+4.4	158.0	69%	70–62	✗
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern	-3.0	153.7	37%	49–62	✗
New Hampshire @ Maine	-0.3	131.6	47%	56–59	✗
Old Dominion @ Florida International	+4.2	155.8	67%	71–66	✗
UTSA @ Rice	+9.7	152.3	82%	69–84	✓
Ohio @ Ball State	-1.5	145.6	52%	78–68	✓
Auburn @ Texas A&M	+0.6	136.9	54%	66–68	✓
West Virginia @ Oklahoma	+0.8	144.4	55%	71–75	✓
Oklahoma State @ Texas Tech	+10.8	130.9	82%	82–77	✗
Notre Dame @ North Carolina	+11.4	146.5	87%	65–66	✓
Colorado State @ San Diego State	+5.3	129.9	70%	70–67	✗
Northern Iowa @ Evansville	+0.7	141.0	54%	61–65	✓
Utah @ USC	+11.0	140.1	86%	46–64	✓
Green Bay @ Youngstown State	+6.9	148.1	76%	79–69	✗
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State	+0.1	129.4	50%	72–66	✗
Troy @ App State	+2.3	128.6	57%	59–90	✓
Lamar @ Abilene Christian	+19.1	132.9	90%	65–83	✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell	+1.4	143.3	55%	73–67	✗
Western Kentucky @ Charlotte	-0.7	134.8	44%	71–75	✗
Utah Valley @ Weber State	+13.8	150.3	87%	62–70	✓
Butler @ Seton Hall	+12.7	141.4	88%	60–68	✓
George Mason @ Dayton	+4.9	139.1	73%	65–74	✓
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois	-0.7	139.4	46%	68–50	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota	+1.2	127.2	52%	45–52	✓
Rider @ Fairfield	-0.7	134.9	42%	56–72	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond	+4.2	144.8	69%	69–66	✗
Oral Roberts @ Omaha	-1.9	146.7	41%	95–83	✓
Denver @ South Dakota	+11.5	145.5	86%	54–93	✓
Wright State @ Oakland	-10.7	148.3	18%	71–81	✗
Cleveland State @ IU Indianapolis	+2.2	139.5	62%	59–49	✗
Morehead State @ Murray State	+6.8	133.0	77%	61–56	✗
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	+8.2	141.9	82%	81–87	✓
Belmont @ UT Martin	-10.8	149.7	16%	90–69	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay	-0.7	150.3	48%	80–75	✓
Liberty @ Lipscomb	-7.1	142.9	30%	66–50	✓
Central Arkansas @ McNeese	-7.5	150.1	25%	81–67	✓
Texas State @ Louisiana	+5.1	132.1	71%	71–59	✗
UT Arlington @ Little Rock	+6.9	152.0	77%	62–75	✓
Arkansas State @ UL Monroe	+3.5	131.1	60%	55–62	✓
UTEP @ Southern Miss	-5.6	126.1	23%	77–62	✓
East Tennessee State @ UNC Greensboro	+3.8	132.9	69%	71–61	✗
LSU New Orleans @ Stephen F. Austin	+2.7	137.2	64%	67–78	✓
Grambling @ Alabama State	—	—	—	66–49	—
Alabama @ Tennessee	+13.5	144.7	87%	71–63	✗
Purdue @ Illinois	+11.5	152.3	86%	58–66	✓
Indiana State @ Missouri State	+9.3	140.3	83%	74–84	✓
California @ Oregon State	+1.1	134.3	56%	64–73	✓
Utah State @ Air Force	-8.9	130.8	20%	72–53	✓
Kentucky @ Mississippi State	+8.5	135.1	81%	78–73	✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky	+7.6	147.0	79%	68–70	✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State	+4.8	137.3	68%	79–83	✓
Sam Houston @ Nicholls	+4.6	142.4	71%	84–81	✗
Wichita State @ Ole Miss	+10.9	133.7	79%	83–79	✗
UAlbany @ Vermont	+8.0	140.3	79%	63–62	✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+11.6	150.4	85%	52–92	✓
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois	-12.2	149.7	16%	68–42	✓
Boise State @ San José State	-14.5	146.9	16%	87–86	✓
Fordham @ La Salle	+14.0	127.5	88%	52–89	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.