Betting Lines
| Spread | SDAK -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Over |
| Money | SDAK -500 DEN +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDAK +39 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | SDAK -15.0 (+24.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDAK -11.5 (+27.5) | 145.5 (+1.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDAK -10.3 (+28.7) | 142.7 (+4.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDAK -12.2 (+26.8) | 144.9 (+2.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDAK -11.3 (+27.7) | 147.1 (-0.1) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | DEN 90 – 70 SDAK |
| Jan 10, 2026 | SDAK 82 – 72 DEN |
| Feb 7, 2025 | SDAK 86 – 79 DEN |
| Jan 5, 2025 | SDAK 91 – 84 DEN |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SDAK 92 – 86 DEN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 2-19 |
| Conference | 11-4 | 1-13 |
| Home | 7-2 | 2-10 |
| Away | 5-4 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 79.8 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#202) | -14.1 (#320) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#276) | -4.13 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.65 (#248) | -6.20 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#291) | 0.322 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 6.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 24.2% |
| ORB% | 21.4% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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