Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | ARK -270 MIZ +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +13 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | ARK -10.4 (-23.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.3 (-22.3) | 145.4 (+3.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -7.4 (-20.4) | 146.9 (+2.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -8.7 (-21.7) | 148.1 (+0.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -8.2 (-21.2) | 145.6 (+3.4) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | ARK 88 – 84 MIZ |
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARK 94 – 86 MIZ |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ARK 92 – 85 MIZ |
| Jan 18, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 65 ARK |
| Feb 24, 2024 | ARK 88 – 73 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-7 | 16-10 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 8-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.4 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 18.7 (#5) | 11.8 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.63 (#7) | 3.60 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.54 (#8) | 5.64 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.554 (#89) | 0.673 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 45.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 76.9% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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