Betting Lines
| Spread | ORST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ORST -160 CAL +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ORST +9 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | ORST -0.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (+8.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ORST -1.1 (+7.9) | 134.3 (+2.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ORST -1.6 (+7.4) | 130.8 (+6.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ORST -1.2 (+7.8) | 134.6 (+2.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -0.1 (+9.1) | 134.6 (+2.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 23, 2024 | CAL 81 – 73 ORST |
| Mar 5, 2023 | ORST 69 – 66 CAL |
| Jan 22, 2023 | ORST 68 – 48 CAL |
| Feb 10, 2022 | CAL 63 – 61 ORST |
| Dec 3, 2021 | CAL 73 – 61 ORST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORST | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 3-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#217) | -0.4 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#222) | -0.22 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#200) | -0.47 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#226) | 0.484 (#182) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORST | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 77.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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