Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | DAY -250 GMU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -7.6 (+1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -4.9 (+4.1) | 139.1 (-0.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -3.9 (+5.1) | 139.0 (+0.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -5.1 (+3.9) | 140.7 (-1.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.2 (+3.8) | 139.1 (-0.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | DAY 82 – 67 GMU |
| Jan 16, 2025 | GMU 67 – 59 DAY |
| Feb 22, 2024 | GMU 71 – 67 DAY |
| Feb 25, 2023 | GMU 74 – 69 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2022 | GMU 50 – 49 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 13-9 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 7-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 71.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#128) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#99) | 0.28 (#153) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#89) | -0.56 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.512 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 25.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 64.0% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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