Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
| Money | WMU +320 TOL -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +11 | 129 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -9.9 (-1.1) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.1 (-1.9) | 135.8 (-6.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -9.2 (-1.8) | 137.1 (-8.1) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -9.6 (-1.4) | 138.2 (-9.2) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | TOL 90 – 79 WMU |
| Dec 30, 2025 | TOL 84 – 79 WMU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TOL 76 – 70 WMU |
| Jan 31, 2024 | TOL 88 – 63 WMU |
| Jan 6, 2023 | TOL 102 – 74 WMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-16 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 15-4 |
| Home | 2-9 | 12-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.2 (#269) | 6.2 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.68 (#312) | 1.39 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#294) | 2.61 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.329 (#324) | 0.550 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WMU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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