Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | SDSU -400 CSU +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +3 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -6.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -5.3 (-8.3) | 129.9 (+7.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -5.1 (-8.1) | 130.8 (+6.2) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -4.4 (-7.4) | 129.3 (+7.7) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -4.3 (-7.3) | 128.0 (+9.0) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 62 CSU |
| Feb 21, 2026 | CSU 83 – 74 SDSU |
| Jan 29, 2026 | SDSU 73 – 50 CSU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | CSU 68 – 63 SDSU |
| Jan 15, 2025 | SDSU 75 – 60 CSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-5 | 20-8 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-2 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.9 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#39) | 8.7 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.39 (#31) | 1.47 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.17 (#39) | 1.68 (#88) |
| RPI | 0.651 (#14) | 0.659 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 5.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 16.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 10.5% |
Game Analysis
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