Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | ULM -145 ARST +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +12 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -3.8 (+8.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -2.8 (+9.2) | 130.4 (+25.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -3.6 (+8.4) | 132.2 (+23.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -3.4 (+8.6) | 133.4 (+22.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -3.6 (+8.4) | 132.1 (+23.9) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Game Analysis
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