Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -280 PFW +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +2 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -9.2 (-7.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -7.6 (-5.6) | 147.0 (-9.0) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -7.7 (-5.7) | 142.2 (-4.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -9.0 (-7.0) | 146.7 (-8.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -6.8 (-4.8) | 147.9 (-9.9) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | NKU 87 – 71 PFW |
| Dec 6, 2025 | PFW 79 – 77 NKU |
| Feb 28, 2025 | NKU 79 – 74 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2025 | NKU 69 – 68 PFW |
| Jan 26, 2024 | PFW 63 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-11 | 8-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-14 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -3.4 (#219) | -9.0 (#289) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#173) | -1.39 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#184) | -2.06 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#185) | 0.364 (#311) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 40.6% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 60.4% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 28.5% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 63.8% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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