Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB -800 MVSU +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +40 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -16.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.1 (-14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -11.6 (+28.4) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -12.2 (+27.8) | 149.3 (-5.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -15.8 (+24.2) | 146.7 (-2.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -14.5 (+25.5) | 147.8 (-3.8) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-21 | 2-22 |
| Conference | 3-12 | 2-13 |
| Home | 2-3 | 1-5 |
| Away | 2-17 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.0 | 56.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 87.4 |
| Massey | -18.8 (#330) | -31.8 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#284) | -2.44 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.53 (#305) | -3.55 (#306) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#220) | 0.416 (#273) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 34.3% | 33.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 27.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.47 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.9% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 16.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 6.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 61.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.5% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 56.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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