Betting Lines
| Spread | LAS -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 122.0 Over |
| Money | LAS -230 FOR +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +37 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | LAS -18.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAS -14.0 (+23.0) | 127.5 (+13.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAS -16.8 (+20.2) | 127.2 (+13.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAS -18.0 (+19.0) | 128.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | LAS 87 – 84 FOR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | FOR 64 – 58 LAS |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FOR 88 – 72 LAS |
| Jan 6, 2024 | LAS 81 – 76 FOR |
| Mar 10, 2023 | FOR 69 – 61 LAS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-16 | 2-12 |
| Conference | 6-11 | 2-11 |
| Home | 6-3 | 2-5 |
| Away | 3-11 | 0-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 51.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#168) | -15.7 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#149) | -3.81 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#151) | -5.76 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#119) | 0.164 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | FOR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 27.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 29.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 29.3% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 11.0% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 14.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 59.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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