Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.0 Under |
| Money | PROV +165 CREI -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | CREI -4.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -0.6 (-1.4) | 152.8 (-20.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.6 (-0.4) | 151.5 (-19.5) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -0.9 (-1.1) | 155.0 (-23.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -1.0 (-1.0) | 152.8 (-20.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | PROV 79 – 76 CREI |
| Jan 16, 2026 | PROV 93 – 88 CREI |
| Feb 6, 2025 | CREI 80 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 15, 2025 | CREI 84 – 64 PROV |
| Mar 14, 2024 | PROV 78 – 73 CREI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-13 | 22-9 |
| Conference | 9-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 5.2 (#90) | 13.4 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#59) | 2.28 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#72) | 3.17 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#79) | 0.594 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 23.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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