Betting Lines
| Spread | APSU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
| Money | APSU -190 EKU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +5 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | EKU -2.6 (-2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -0.7 (-4.3) | 150.3 (+4.7) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -0.6 (-4.4) | 150.0 (+5.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -1.8 (-3.2) | 152.6 (+2.4) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -1.3 (-3.7) | 149.8 (+5.2) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | APSU 90 – 82 EKU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | APSU 74 – 72 EKU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | EKU 88 – 82 APSU |
| Jan 17, 2025 | APSU 97 – 90 EKU |
| Feb 29, 2024 | APSU 83 – 79 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 22-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-6 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#244) | 1.3 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#190) | -0.21 (#182) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#220) | -0.64 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#259) | 0.471 (#201) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 25.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 37.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 28.7% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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