Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -13.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Under |
| Money | UVM -1100 UALB +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +1 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | UVM -9.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -8.0 (-9.0) | 140.3 (-15.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -7.1 (-8.1) | 134.2 (-9.2) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -7.6 (-8.6) | 140.3 (-15.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -7.9 (-8.9) | 139.5 (-14.5) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-5 | 7-9 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 6-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 4-5 |
| Away | 4-2 | 2-4 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.4 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#150) | -5.3 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#188) | -2.99 (#320) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#154) | -3.64 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.395 (#289) | 0.342 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 26.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 18.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 79.5% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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