Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.0 Over |
| Money | FUR -600 MER +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -12.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -10.2 (-7.2) | 154.1 (+8.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -8.3 (-5.3) | 154.0 (+9.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -10.2 (-7.2) | 156.5 (+6.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -9.8 (-6.8) | 155.0 (+8.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | MER 69 – 64 FUR |
| Dec 31, 2025 | FUR 74 – 72 MER |
| Feb 13, 2025 | FUR 96 – 72 MER |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FUR 79 – 74 MER |
| Mar 2, 2024 | MER 82 – 75 FUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-9 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 10-5 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-7 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.2 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#31) | 3.1 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#110) | 1.24 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#104) | 1.56 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#116) | 0.531 (#117) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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