Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -125 LSU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -2.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -2.4 (+1.6) | 153.9 (+8.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -1.1 (+2.9) | 149.0 (+13.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -1.4 (+2.6) | 153.2 (+8.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -2.7 (+1.3) | 152.3 (+9.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | FLA 79 – 61 LSU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FLA 79 – 65 LSU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | FLA 82 – 80 LSU |
| Mar 4, 2023 | FLA 79 – 67 LSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | FLA 67 – 56 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-10 | 19-10 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 11-6 |
| Home | 6-3 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#17) | 16.2 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#41) | 2.02 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#49) | 2.98 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.645 (#16) | 0.622 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.7% | 51.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.9% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 59.0% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.6% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.9% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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