Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | LT +105 MRSH -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -4.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -0.3 (+7.3) | 147.2 (-4.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -0.7 (+7.7) | 145.1 (-2.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -0.6 (+7.6) | 149.4 (-6.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -0.5 (+7.5) | 148.7 (-5.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2022 | LT 77 – 67 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2021 | LT 79 – 56 MRSH |
| Jan 3, 2021 | MRSH 80 – 73 LT |
Game Analysis
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