Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | LT +110 MRSH -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +7 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -2.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -1.7 (-8.7) | 145.0 (+8.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -0.7 (-7.7) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -1.3 (-8.3) | 149.3 (+3.7) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LT -0.7 (-7.7) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2022 | LT 77 – 67 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2021 | LT 79 – 56 MRSH |
| Jan 2, 2021 | LT 75 – 68 MRSH |
Game Analysis
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