Betting Lines
| Spread | LT -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | LT -360 MRSH +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LT +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | LT -9.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LT -8.0 (+2.0) | 150.7 (-6.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LT -7.3 (+2.7) | 150.1 (-6.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LT -8.2 (+1.8) | 151.3 (-7.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LT -7.7 (+2.3) | 150.1 (-6.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2021 | LT 79 – 56 MRSH |
| Jan 3, 2021 | MRSH 80 – 73 LT |
| Jan 2, 2021 | LT 75 – 68 MRSH |
Game Analysis
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