Betting Lines
| Spread | ULM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | ULM -150 ARST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +7 | 117 | Won |
| Massey | ULM -3.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (-14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ULM -3.5 (+3.5) | 131.1 (-14.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ULM -3.4 (+3.6) | 132.7 (-15.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ULM -3.5 (+3.5) | 133.0 (-16.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ULM -3.7 (+3.3) | 130.9 (-13.9) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ARST 102 – 94 ULM |
| Feb 12, 2026 | ARST 103 – 70 ULM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ARST 94 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 22, 2025 | ARST 95 – 70 ULM |
| Feb 3, 2024 | ARST 95 – 80 ULM |
Game Analysis
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