Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -340 PUR +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -13.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -11.5 (-3.5) | 152.3 (-28.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.7 (-1.7) | 140.5 (-16.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -11.3 (-3.3) | 145.3 (-21.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -11.7 (-3.7) | 151.3 (-27.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | ILL 88 – 82 PUR |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ILL 88 – 80 PUR |
| Mar 6, 2024 | PUR 77 – 71 ILL |
| Jan 6, 2024 | PUR 83 – 78 ILL |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PUR 76 – 71 ILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-7 | 18-10 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 13-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 11-1 |
| Away | 9-3 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | 20.0 (#4) | 9.7 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#20) | 1.80 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.84 (#12) | 2.96 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#23) | 0.597 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 53.1% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 42.6% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 35.8% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 79.0% | 78.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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