Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -165 INST +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -11.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -9.3 (+0.7) | 140.3 (+17.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -8.1 (+1.9) | 143.7 (+14.3) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -9.4 (+0.6) | 143.3 (+14.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -9.2 (+0.8) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2025 | INST 72 – 67 MOST |
| Dec 8, 2024 | INST 80 – 77 MOST |
| Mar 8, 2024 | INST 75 – 59 MOST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | INST 73 – 71 MOST |
| Jan 17, 2024 | INST 88 – 66 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-7 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 9-3 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#71) | -0.4 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#135) | 0.20 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | 0.84 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#194) | 0.503 (#157) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 29.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 32.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.