Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | UL -160 TXST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UL -4.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.8 (+31.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -3.2 (+2.8) | 134.1 (+25.9) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -3.6 (+2.4) | 131.0 (+29.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -4.5 (+1.5) | 135.0 (+25.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -3.7 (+2.3) | 134.8 (+25.2) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Game Analysis
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