Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | SEMO -130 TNST +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +4 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -6.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -4.8 (-0.8) | 137.3 (+24.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -5.4 (-1.4) | 138.3 (+23.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -5.2 (-1.2) | 141.4 (+20.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.3 (-0.3) | 136.1 (+25.9) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | TNST 79 – 71 SEMO |
| Dec 20, 2025 | SEMO 91 – 82 TNST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SEMO 89 – 87 TNST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | SEMO 67 – 65 TNST |
| Feb 10, 2024 | TNST 77 – 74 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 4-19 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-6 | 4-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#265) | -9.5 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#292) | -2.65 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.60 (#284) | -4.01 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.327 (#325) | 0.436 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 24.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 82.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 34.5% |
Game Analysis
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