Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
| Money | CAN +135 SPU -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAN +3 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -2.8 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -0.6 (+3.6) | 134.0 (-11.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -1.1 (+4.1) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.3 (+4.3) | 137.5 (-14.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -1.5 (+4.5) | 134.3 (-11.3) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2025 | SPU 69 – 57 CAN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SPU 70 – 62 CAN |
| Jan 12, 2025 | SPU 62 – 49 CAN |
| Jan 21, 2024 | SPU 70 – 59 CAN |
| Dec 3, 2023 | SPU 54 – 52 CAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-6 | 14-11 |
| Conference | 7-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 3-1 | 8-3 |
| Away | 4-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 61.5 |
| Massey | -4.4 (#237) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.52 (#129) | 1.12 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#123) | 1.55 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#105) | 0.578 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAN | SPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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