Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -600 ND +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.8 (-12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -11.4 (-10.4) | 146.5 (-15.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.0 (-9.0) | 140.3 (-9.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -9.8 (-8.8) | 143.7 (-12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -11.1 (-10.1) | 146.0 (-15.0) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNC 91 – 69 ND |
| Mar 12, 2025 | UNC 76 – 56 ND |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNC 74 – 73 ND |
| Mar 6, 2024 | UNC 84 – 51 ND |
| Feb 23, 2023 | UNC 63 – 59 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 11-15 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-1 | 6-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#54) | -0.7 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#102) | -0.87 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.70 (#85) | -0.81 (#204) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#103) | 0.442 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 44.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 40.7% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 12.0% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.0% | 13.9% |
Game Analysis
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