Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | BC +240 LOU -280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +12 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -3.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -2.9 (-9.1) | 142.5 (-2.5) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.8 (-9.2) | 137.2 (+2.8) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -6.2 (-5.8) | 139.2 (+0.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.8 (-8.2) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-16 | 13-7 |
| Conference | 2-11 | 8-5 |
| Home | 3-5 | 9-2 |
| Away | 0-7 | 4-4 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.5 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#142) | 8.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#163) | 2.90 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#134) | 3.58 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#161) | 0.652 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | LOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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