Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -320 ETSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +10 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -5.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -3.8 (-13.8) | 132.9 (-0.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -4.3 (-14.3) | 132.2 (-0.2) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.9 (-12.9) | 136.5 (-4.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -3.6 (-13.6) | 133.1 (-1.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 13-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-7 |
| Home | 7-3 | 8-4 |
| Away | 10-3 | 3-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#139) | -0.6 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#147) | -0.30 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#172) | 0.36 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#126) | 0.478 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 44.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 16.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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