Betting Lines
| Spread | NIA -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
| Money | MRST -105 NIA -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NIA +14 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MRST -4.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (+37.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRST -3.0 (-17.0) | 128.2 (+29.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRST -2.1 (-16.1) | 127.4 (+30.6) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRST -1.1 (-15.1) | 128.4 (+29.6) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRST -3.1 (-17.1) | 125.7 (+32.3) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 1, 2026 | MRST 58 – 46 NIA |
| Feb 23, 2025 | MRST 64 – 61 NIA |
| Jan 23, 2025 | MRST 67 – 65 NIA |
| Mar 14, 2024 | MRST 65 – 59 NIA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | MRST 63 – 62 NIA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-9 | 9-11 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 6-3 | 5-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.4 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#182) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.53 (#67) | -0.48 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#95) | -0.47 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#72) | 0.478 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRST | NIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 24.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 21.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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