Betting Lines
| Spread | ECU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.0 Under |
| Money | TULN +100 ECU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +4 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | ECU -3.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.4 (-11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ECU -1.0 (+5.0) | 132.7 (-16.7) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ECU -0.5 (+4.5) | 130.1 (-14.1) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ECU -0.6 (+4.6) | 131.7 (-15.7) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ECU -1.8 (+5.8) | 132.1 (-16.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | TULN 79 – 70 ECU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ECU 73 – 64 TULN |
| Feb 20, 2025 | TULN 86 – 81 ECU |
| Feb 18, 2024 | ECU 81 – 67 TULN |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TULN 81 – 78 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-13 | 8-11 |
| Conference | 4-12 | 2-10 |
| Home | 6-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 3-6 | 1-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.5 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#209) | 3.5 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#165) | 2.32 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#179) | 3.13 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#184) | 0.628 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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