Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | KSU +170 TCU -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +7 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -3.1 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -1.9 (-5.1) | 139.6 (-12.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -0.9 (-6.1) | 133.6 (-6.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -1.4 (-5.6) | 136.4 (-9.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -1.5 (-5.5) | 139.8 (-12.8) | 44% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | TCU 77 – 68 KSU |
| Feb 7, 2026 | TCU 84 – 82 KSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | TCU 63 – 62 KSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | TCU 75 – 72 KSU |
| Mar 10, 2023 | TCU 80 – 67 KSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-20 | 12-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-11 |
| Home | 6-12 | 6-7 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.6 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#198) | 4.2 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#175) | 1.88 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#207) | 2.02 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#195) | 0.549 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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