Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -4.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +160 UTC -180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -1.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -1.1 (+6.1) | 140.6 (+22.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -1.0 (+6.0) | 144.0 (+19.0) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -2.0 (+7.0) | 141.7 (+21.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -0.8 (+5.8) | 140.7 (+22.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | UTC 86 – 79 VMI |
| Jan 3, 2026 | VMI 79 – 71 UTC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UTC 91 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UTC 91 – 66 VMI |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UTC 88 – 84 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-12 | 18-8 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-1 | 9-3 |
| Away | 1-10 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#177) | 3.9 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#254) | 1.57 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#261) | 1.91 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#260) | 0.546 (#102) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 12.4% |
Game Analysis
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