Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +19 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.2 (+1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -8.9 (-10.1) | 130.8 (-5.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.8 (-7.2) | 127.3 (-2.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -14.0 (-5.0) | 131.6 (-6.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -11.9 (-7.1) | 130.2 (-5.2) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | USU 99 – 62 AF |
| Mar 8, 2025 | USU 87 – 47 AF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | USU 87 – 58 AF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | USU 72 – 60 AF |
| Jan 2, 2024 | USU 88 – 60 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-20 | 20-9 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 15-4 |
| Home | 3-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 1-10 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 62.3 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#297) | 4.9 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#179) | 0.42 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#230) | 0.30 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#159) | 0.508 (#150) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 25.7 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 4.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 26.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 15.0% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 79.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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