Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | APP -260 TROY +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +31 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.0 (+27.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.1 (+28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -2.3 (+28.7) | 128.6 (+20.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.1 (+28.9) | 127.0 (+22.0) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.1 (+27.9) | 125.5 (+23.5) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.3 (+28.7) | 126.6 (+22.4) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | APP 66 – 44 TROY |
| Jan 2, 2025 | TROY 69 – 61 APP |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TROY 66 – 62 APP |
| Jan 14, 2023 | APP 58 – 45 TROY |
| Feb 17, 2022 | TROY 67 – 61 APP |
Game Analysis
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