I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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63–25 on winners spread MAE 11.2 88 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stonehill @ Kentucky +36.1 140.9 100% 67–101 ✓
Radford @ James Madison +28.7 165.8 100% 73–76 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Nicholls +5.8 142.5 70% 60–51 ✗
Morehead State @ Penn State +15.9 142.4 93% 51–74 ✓
Davidson @ East Tennessee State +0.9 135.5 53% 68–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Tulane +9.2 152.3 80% 57–92 ✓
Coppin State @ Miami (OH) +22.0 130.8 98% 48–76 ✓
Bellarmine @ Bowling Green +14.0 135.0 90% 85–67 ✗
Robert Morris @ Wisconsin +5.6 149.8 69% 68–78 ✓
Northwestern State @ North Florida +14.0 157.8 90% 74–80 ✓
Rider @ Duquesne +13.0 143.0 88% 58–77 ✓
Charleston Southern @ NC State +25.7 141.8 99% 53–87 ✓
Auburn @ St. Bonaventure -5.8 149.8 30% 77–60 ✓
Towson @ Wake Forest -1.3 139.1 45% 61–71 ✗
Harvard @ Massachusetts +4.9 161.2 67% 78–75 ✗
Long Beach State @ Michigan +18.7 167.6 96% 94–86 ✗
Jacksonville @ Pittsburgh +24.6 154.7 99% 56–107 ✓
East Texas A&M @ Saint Joseph's +22.2 141.4 98% 57–54 ✗
Fairfield @ Drexel +11.4 152.1 85% 47–65 ✓
Florida State @ Florida +5.2 167.2 68% 68–89 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Vanderbilt +8.8 134.3 79% 71–75 ✓
Cal Poly @ St. Thomas +2.2 137.0 58% 61–60 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Elon -5.8 149.7 30% 72–86 ✗
South Carolina State @ Samford +12.9 151.7 88% 72–89 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Texas A&M +24.4 142.2 99% 66–74 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Arkansas +19.8 162.2 96% 78–72 ✗
UC Riverside @ North Carolina +18.0 150.4 95% 52–77 ✓
Mercer @ Alabama +28.4 153.1 100% 67–98 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois +23.0 119.7 98% 64–87 ✓
Arkansas State @ Iowa +28.5 185.5 100% 74–88 ✓
Southern @ Western Illinois -1.8 155.2 43% 80–88 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Oklahoma +35.1 149.2 100% 66–90 ✓
Alabama State @ Memphis +23.5 145.5 98% 75–92 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ TCU +37.4 144.7 100% 52–86 ✓
Missouri State @ Florida Gulf Coast +1.4 141.8 55% 70–61 ✗
UTSA @ Texas State +16.1 157.2 93% 62–72 ✓
Maryland @ Villanova +15.9 134.8 93% 40–57 ✓
Austin Peay @ UTEP +13.8 133.9 89% 63–71 ✓
Sam Houston @ Ole Miss +8.6 139.9 78% 67–70 ✓
Tennessee State @ Oregon +3.7 144.9 63% 67–92 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Stanford +13.7 169.3 89% 70–95 ✓
San Francisco @ Grand Canyon +0.2 143.4 51% 72–76 ✓
Wichita State @ Liberty +3.8 144.1 63% 66–83 ✓
Kansas City @ Colorado State +29.3 158.7 100% 61–84 ✓
Saint Mary's @ San Diego State +7.8 133.2 76% 54–79 ✓
Le Moyne @ San Diego +27.1 138.1 99% 71–80 ✓
Portland State @ California Baptist -1.5 137.6 45% 66–63 ✓
UNLV @ Pepperdine +23.6 140.2 98% 82–68 ✗
Belmont @ Arizona +40.3 166.2 100% 68–100 ✓
South Carolina @ DePaul -10.3 135.3 18% 73–68 ✓
Washington @ Xavier +4.5 148.6 66% 74–71 ✗
Loyola Maryland @ Sacred Heart +7.4 155.9 75% 51–66 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +19.7 133.3 96% 51–72 ✓
Washington State @ Mississippi State +2.6 140.9 59% 64–76 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgetown +14.0 142.8 90% 72–83 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Lipscomb +18.7 153.1 96% 81–106 ✓
Columbia @ Temple +23.1 145.6 98% 78–73 ✗
Cleveland State @ Eastern Michigan -8.2 148.7 23% 62–69 ✗
New Hampshire @ George Washington +13.3 144.1 89% 67–79 ✓
VMI @ Northern Arizona -10.2 145.6 18% 69–78 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Little Rock -6.3 150.9 28% 98–93 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Minnesota +13.6 150.1 89% 53–67 ✓
Presbyterian @ Northwestern State -12.3 148.8 13% 78–75 ✓
Southern Indiana @ La Salle +17.0 140.3 94% 78–79 ✓
Ball State @ Evansville +12.2 134.6 87% 50–74 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Ohio +21.8 156.4 98% 52–71 ✓
Princeton @ Monmouth +5.1 141.0 68% 82–57 ✗
Seattle U @ VCU +11.7 133.4 86% 56–60 ✓
Northwestern @ Rhode Island +5.1 138.7 68% 72–61 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Longwood +22.4 132.8 98% 66–73 ✓
Norfolk State @ San José State +6.8 132.3 73% 53–77 ✓
Coppin State @ Eastern Illinois +8.9 133.2 79% 46–48 ✓
Marist @ Binghamton -0.1 126.7 50% 59–82 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Maryland Eastern Shore -3.2 141.9 38% 80–83 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Colgate -7.8 129.6 24% 52–59 ✗
McNeese @ Western Carolina +6.8 142.6 73% 74–76 ✓
Oregon State @ Nebraska +8.0 138.2 77% 63–84 ✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ South Dakota -3.6 161.7 37% 93–81 ✓
Winthrop @ IU Indianapolis -4.3 138.6 35% 74–61 ✓
Harvard @ Boston College +5.2 144.6 68% 64–73 ✓
Maine @ North Florida +2.6 149.5 59% 58–67 ✓
Lamar @ Pacific +1.7 142.3 56% 76–77 ✓
Cal Poly @ Portland State +17.2 144.2 94% 57–73 ✓
Hampton @ Florida Gulf Coast +12.1 147.9 86% 92–85 ✗
Bryant @ Florida Atlantic +25.6 151.0 99% 61–52 ✗
Howard @ Rutgers +11.6 137.1 85% 63–85 ✓
Queens University @ Fairfield +6.4 164.7 72% 69–63 ✗
Yale @ Weber State -1.9 133.9 43% 65–75 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.