Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -29.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +23 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -23.4 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 119.9 (+31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -19.8 (+3.2) | 139.7 (+11.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -15.7 (+7.3) | 129.2 (+21.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -20.1 (+2.9) | 127.1 (+23.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -20.8 (+2.2) | 129.7 (+21.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 3-17 |
| Home | 15-3 | 6-11 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#102) | -10.6 (#335) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#189) | -1.44 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#171) | -2.42 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#191) | 0.200 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | VAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 16.2% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 36.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.1% | 43.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.8% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 12.7% |
Game Analysis
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