Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -10000 UCR +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +25 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -18.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (-21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -15.0 (+10.0) | 149.5 (-20.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -16.2 (+8.8) | 145.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -20.2 (+4.8) | 145.8 (-16.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -17.4 (+7.6) | 151.0 (-22.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#93) | -4.9 (#271) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#106) | -0.95 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#99) | -1.20 (#246) |
| RPI | 0.583 (#98) | 0.370 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 32.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 44.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 2.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 38.8% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 9.4% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 10.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 63.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.8% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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