Betting Lines
| Spread | ARIZ -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 173.0 Under |
| Money | ARIZ -7000 BEL +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARIZ +32 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | ARIZ -38.5 (-6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARIZ -26.8 (+5.2) | 164.9 (+3.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARIZ -38.4 (-6.4) | 159.7 (+8.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARIZ -35.9 (-3.9) | 161.1 (+6.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARIZ | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 77.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 23.4 (#1) | -6.3 (#290) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#7) | -0.03 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.77 (#6) | -0.25 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#54) | 0.479 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARIZ | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.8% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 41.0% | 26.8% |
| REB / G | 49.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 17.3 | 6.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.36 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 46.4% | 17.1% |
| FT Rate | 33.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 80.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 12.8% |
Game Analysis
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