Betting Lines
| Spread | USD -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | USD -1200 LEM +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USD +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | USD -27.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.2 (+12.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USD -16.0 (-7.0) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USD -18.7 (-9.7) | 140.4 (+10.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USD -23.5 (-14.5) | 140.3 (+10.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USD -23.7 (-14.7) | 140.6 (+10.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USD | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Home | 12-6 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 4.8 (#88) | -13.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#180) | -2.65 (#351) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#176) | -4.23 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#152) | 0.201 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USD | LEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 39.5 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 40.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 17.0% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 11.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 63.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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