Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UK -100000 STO +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +34 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UK -36.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (+25.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -28.5 (+5.5) | 150.9 (+17.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -24.9 (+9.1) | 142.1 (+25.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -32.1 (+1.9) | 144.3 (+23.7) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -31.5 (+2.5) | 145.7 (+22.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 2-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 0-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#31) | -17.2 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#168) | -0.59 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#161) | -0.85 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#206) | 0.532 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 33.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 2.53 | 0.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 39.7% |
| TOV% | 7.8% | 22.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 20.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 79.6% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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