Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -285 MD +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +17 | 97 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -16.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.1 (-38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -15.1 (+1.9) | 136.1 (-39.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -16.2 (+0.8) | 134.9 (-37.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -14.5 (+2.5) | 135.3 (-38.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -8.7 (+8.3) | 131.2 (-34.2) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2024 | MD 76 – 75 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#76) | -2.2 (#217) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#178) | -1.60 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#186) | -1.92 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#214) | 0.394 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 22.6% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 44.8% |
| TOV% | 11.4% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 35.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 42.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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