The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Villanova Wildcats
57 40
FINAL Gavitt Tipoff Games
Maryland Terrapins
Finneran Pavilion · November 18, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread VILL -6.0 Home covered
O/U 132.5 Under
Money VILL -285 / MD +228
Model Predictions
Spread Total VILL win
Actual VILL +17 97 Won
Massey VILL -16.6 (+0.4)
Massey Totals 135.1 (-38.1)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML VILL -15.1 (+1.9) 136.1 (-39.1) 87%
Baseline ML VILL -16.2 (+0.8) 134.9 (-37.9) 86%
Baseline Tuned ML VILL -14.5 (+2.5) 135.3 (-38.3) 86%
Efficiency Plus ML VILL -8.7 (+8.3) 131.2 (-34.2) 79%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 24, 2024 MD 7675 VILL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VILL MD
Overall 18-16 16-17
Conference 10-10 7-13
Home 10-6 11-6
Away 4-8 4-8
Neutral 4-2 1-3
Last 5 2-1 1-2
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 69.0
Avg Pts Against 65.6 65.9
Massey 5.7 (#76) -2.2 (#217)
Bradley-Terry -0.07 (#178) -1.60 (#311)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.18 (#186) -1.92 (#283)
RPI 0.465 (#214) 0.394 (#277)
Shooting & Four Factors VILL MD
FG% 45.3% 40.5%
3PT% 34.7% 22.6%
REB / G 40.0 36.7
OREB / G 11.7 12.7
AST / TO 1.91 0.67
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.7% 44.8%
TOV% 11.4% 21.6%
ORB% 33.7% 35.2%
FT Rate 26.0% 28.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 42.9%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 21.5%
DRB% 75.2% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 27.2%

Game Analysis

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