Betting Lines
| Spread | PRES -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NWST +350 PRES -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NWST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PRES +3 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -12.6 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PRES -4.9 (+1.9) | 142.9 (+10.1) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PRES -8.4 (+5.4) | 143.7 (+9.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PRES -9.3 (+6.3) | 144.9 (+8.1) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PRES -9.3 (+6.3) | 145.5 (+7.5) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NWST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.7 | 74.6 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#342) | 1.2 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#349) | 1.25 (#80) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.83 (#346) | 1.01 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.302 (#316) | 0.567 (#115) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NWST | PRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 40.0% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 6.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.0% | 20.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.2% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.4% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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