Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | JOES -2500 ETAM +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETAM +3 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | JOES -22.1 (-25.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-29.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -16.2 (-19.2) | 138.5 (-27.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -17.9 (-20.9) | 139.0 (-28.0) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -24.8 (-27.8) | 140.6 (-29.6) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -21.4 (-24.4) | 138.7 (-27.7) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.5 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 7.2 (#59) | -6.1 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#72) | -0.96 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#76) | -1.31 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#51) | 0.528 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 35.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 20.4% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.94 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 11.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.4% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.