Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Over |
| Money | SDAK +136 PFW -162 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDAK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +12 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | PFW -3.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -3.1 (-8.9) | 153.7 (+20.3) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -4.1 (-7.9) | 152.5 (+21.5) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -3.3 (-8.7) | 153.1 (+20.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -3.3 (-8.7) | 155.0 (+19.0) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 10-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.5 | 72.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#131) | 5.5 (#79) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#197) | 2.74 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#231) | 4.29 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.366 (#286) | 0.601 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDAK | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 15.3 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 79.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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