Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | PSU -900 MORE +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +23 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -15.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -16.3 (+6.7) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -14.7 (+8.3) | 140.0 (-15.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -17.5 (+5.5) | 139.6 (-14.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -15.8 (+7.2) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 26-9 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#74) | -1.1 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.91 (#108) | 0.62 (#129) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.32 (#107) | 1.03 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#181) | 0.696 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 36.2% | 58.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.8% | 38.0% |
Game Analysis
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