Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -190 VMI +158 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | VMI -9.2 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VMI -2.4 (+11.4) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VMI -4.0 (+13.0) | 140.6 (+6.4) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VMI -3.6 (+12.6) | 142.1 (+4.9) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VMI -4.0 (+13.0) | 145.3 (+1.7) | 33% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 7-5 | 4-10 |
| Away | 6-12 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 84.9 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#311) | 1.2 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#75) | -1.91 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#65) | -3.01 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#48) | 0.417 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 23.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 29.8 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 18.4% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 12.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 12.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.1% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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